Crisis: Inflation and 4 Colossal Interruptions of the Business Cycle

Crisis: Inflation and 4 Colossal Interruptions of the Business Cycle


Among the many challenges that corporations face in today’s business environment is the constant rise in inflation. This article examines several factors that contribute to inflation, including exchange rate movements, built-in inflation, cost-push inflation and supply-chain disruptions.

Cost-push inflation

Compared to demand-pull inflation, cost-push inflation is a type of inflation that occurs when prices rise because of a sudden increase in the cost of key materials, raw materials, or inputs. Cost-push inflation is most commonly associated with an external event, such as war, a natural disaster, or a geopolitical shock.

While it is not necessarily a bad thing, cost-push inflation can lead to a decline in economic growth. For example, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries created cost-push inflation in the 1970s when they imposed higher prices on the oil market.

This caused a drastic increase in the price of oil and its related products. It also impacted transportation, construction, and plastics.

As a result of the increase in the price of oil, companies had to increase their prices. These price increases are then passed on to consumers. They can also lead to a decline in overall supply. Generally, cost-push inflation is temporary, and companies are not likely to be able to continue producing at these prices for long.

Cost-push can also be caused by changes in exchange rates, natural disasters, and government regulation. Regulatory constraints can include minimum wage requirements, environmental regulations, and health mandates.  This can lead to hyper inflation.

Natural disasters

In addition, natural disasters can disrupt the flow of raw materials. They can also lead to supply chain problems, and a shortage of raw materials can force companies to cut back on production. During a period of cost-push inflation, companies may need to raise their prices to recoup losses.

Although cost-push inflation is rare, it is not unheard of. It usually begins from a shortage of a key resource, such as labor or raw materials. This can be a result of war, natural disasters, or government regulation.

Cost-push inflation can lead to a recession. As prices rise, consumers will have to cut back on their spending, and their real GDP will drop. This leads to layoffs and decreased demand for goods and services. In some cases, prices of inelastic goods, such as gasoline, can increase as well. This can impact a person’s quality of life.

Cost-push may also occur when companies are forced to cut back on production due to a lack of raw materials or capital goods. This decreases the supply of goods, and companies may need to raise their prices to keep up with their costs.  This can lead to hyper-inflation.

Supply-chain disruptions

Despite the rosy view of the economy, supply chain disruptions continue to exert upward pressure on prices. These factors include the labor market, energy prices, and shortages of goods.

These factors have contributed to the rise in the consumer price index (CPI), which increased 8.6% over the previous year. While the effects of supply chain disruptions are still being felt, they are slowly easing. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) by S&P Global, for example, tracks changes in delivery times.

According to BCG, the cost of shipping goods is on the rise, up more than 300 percent in the last year. Labor shortages in trucking are another factor contributing to delays. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has put extra pressure on energy prices.

Disruptions in America

For companies in the United States, diversifying supply chains is essential for national security reasons. It will be interesting to see how companies respond to these disruptions. A resilient supply chain will support new growth sources and innovations.

In the “new normal,” companies that anticipate shortages will gain a competitive advantage. In addition to expanding the surface area of their supply chain, companies should consider standardized processes to prevent margin leakage. This should include real time data that is company-wide.

Supply chain leadership

Supply chain leaders will benefit from the use of risk-scenario modeling tools. This will help them evaluate the effects of supply-chain disruptions and their associated effects on prices. Companies should also monitor leading KPIs to identify any changes in cost trends.

Supply chain leaders should look to reduce the risks associated with supply-chain disruptions in 2021. While the effects of supply chain disruptions will continue to affect the overall inflation rate in the us, businesses can take steps to minimize the impact of these factors.

For example, they could consider investing in new technology to increase supply chain capacity and reduce costs. The benefits of investing in new supply chain technologies are well documented, including increased productivity and improved supply chain resilience. While this may be a good idea, it is also important to consider the long-term effects of supply chain disruptions.

In conclusion, the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index provides a composite view of the state of the supply chain. The index includes a variety of metrics, including the above mentioned PPI and leading KPIs.

Exchange rate movements

Several empirical approaches have been used to examine the relationship between inflation data and exchange rate movements. Using a semi-parametric approach, the paper presents evidence on the determinants of exchange rate pass-through.

In the study, the relative appreciation and depreciation of the exchange rate are measured in weeks before and after an FX purchase. Statistically, the relative depreciation is faster in the weeks after a purchase. This is attributed to the fact that FX purchases are more likely to occur in periods of high exchange rate volatility. The relative appreciation is not significantly different from zero after the first week. The paper applies a vector autoregression model to explain the correlation between inflation and exchange rate changes.

In the case of the relative depreciation, there is an additional 0.5 percent effect on the week of purchase. The paper also applies an inverse probability weighting estimator developed by Jorda and Taylor (2015). The paper finds that the relative appreciation is significant in explaining 47 percent of LCPI variance.

In addition, the paper finds that the exchange rate pass-through is also significant in explaining the increase in inflation. This may be because the exchange rate is used as a buffer against external shocks, and the response to an external shock in subsequent periods can be used to offset the effects of an exchange rate change. The paper finds that there is a significant correlation between inflation and exchange rate changes in Vietnam.

In addition, the paper finds that inflation expectations are closely related to exchange rate movements. However, the connection between inflation and exchange rate movements is difficult to separate from other factors, especially with the growing openness of the market. This may make it difficult to concentrate on the inflation target.

The most significant of all the findings of the paper is that the exchange rate pass-through is a significant factor in explaining inflation in Vietnam. This is because firms take on the exchange rate fluctuations in their products. This is the same way that countries with credible inflation targets can use the exchange rate as a buffer against external shocks.
hyper inflation

Built-in inflation

Often called the wage-price spiral, built-in inflation is a type of inflation caused by consumers’ expectations of future price increases. Usually referred to as a double-edged sword, it affects all sectors of the economy.

It can also be caused by demand-pull inflation, when consumers expect prices to increase and thus demand higher wages. Alternatively, it can be caused by cost-push inflation, when production costs increase and prices rise.

The cost of producing goods, such as oil and gas, can increase. It is often caused by scarcity of raw materials. The higher the cost of production, the higher the wages that employers will pay workers. If the cost of production increases, employers will raise the prices of finished goods to offset the cost of wages.

Increase in demand

The demand for goods increases, which makes it difficult for businesses to meet the demand. This creates a gap between the demand and supply of goods. This gap is then tapped by third parties, who increase volume and reintroduce it at inflated prices.

In order to meet the demand, businesses will increase their costs to cover their profit margins. As a result, all individuals will spend more money to meet their needs. This increase in prices reduces the purchasing power of currency. This reduction in purchasing power leads to higher prices and more inflation.

A common example of built-in inflation is the rise in home prices. At one point, a house may have sold for $30k, but it may be worth $400k at another. Similarly, a movie theater may have charged $15 for a screening, but it may now be charging $3.

Another example is the rise in the cost of gasoline. Originally, gas was priced at just over a quarter per gallon. But now, gas is priced at $3 in some areas of the country.

As a result of higher prices, people demand higher wages in order to meet their needs. This demand will increase the cost of production and make it more expensive to buy goods. This increases the cost of living for everyone, which can lead to another increase in the demand for higher wages.

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